--- title: "The Catastrophic Brainstorm: A Pre-Mortem for Big, Risky Projects" description: "A pre-mortem for big agency projects. Brain-dump every nightmare, sort it into a likelihood-vs-impact 2x2, and neutralize the high-impact risks before you start." url: https://timkilroy.com/blog/catastrophic-brainstorm-premortem date: 2026-06-04 updated: 2026-06-13T16:42:35Z category: "Management" readTime: "7 min" author: Tim Kilroy --- # The Catastrophic Brainstorm: A Pre-Mortem for Big, Risky Projects _A pre-mortem for big agency projects. Brain-dump every nightmare, sort it into a likelihood-vs-impact 2x2, and neutralize the high-impact risks before you start._ The [60-second pre-mortem](/blog/60-second-pre-mortem) is perfect for the stuff you do all the time. But when you're about to do something big, new, and hairy — launching a new service, overhauling your delivery model, betting the quarter on a single campaign — 60 seconds won't cut it. You need a catastrophic brainstorm. Quick story. My wife is an executive function coach, so she lives in a world of checklists, contingencies, and "what happens if." When we're trying to leave the house, I'm in pure go mode — everybody in the car, we'll figure out the rest when we get there, because I am so sure I'll just figure it out. She can't operate that way, and we get a little tension between my "let's go" and her "let's not, because we haven't thought it through." As in most things: my wife is right. When you're in go mode, you haven't thought about what can go wrong. And when something does go wrong while you're in go mode, you're standing there without the resources you need to handle it. ## Ignore Your Plan & Instincts. Assume Everything is Wrong. Here's the hard part for entrepreneurs. To run a real catastrophic brainstorm, you have to set your intentions and your plans aside. They don't matter for this exercise. It does not matter how carefully you've thought it through — for the next 20 minutes, assume all of your assumptions are wrong. You also have to challenge three of your own perceptions: **Your perception of what's possible.** We discount things we don't think are likely, but often what's really happening is we don't *want* to think about them. Put them on the list anyway. **Your perception of "likely."** "Likely" should mean there's a real, meaningful chance — not "technically more than zero." Be clear-eyed about what's actually probable versus what you're hand-waving away. **Your perception of impact.** This is where optimists like me get killed. "If it goes wrong, we'll figure it out, I'm quick on my feet." That's fine if you're doing a comedy act. If you're leading a team and you get forced into reactive mode — scrambling to figure it out on the fly — you've already failed. Reactive is failure. The whole point of the brainstorm is to never get there. ## Step 1: Nightmare Brain-Dump Get the team in a room and list everything that could go wrong. Everything. No filtering, no "that won't happen." Just dump. When I was preparing the talk this toolkit came from, my list looked like this: I could lose track of time and miss it. The host could decide he hates me. My computer could die. My webcam — which is emotional and sometimes just doesn't work — could quit on me. I could have an allergy attack and not be able to see or speak. The internet could go down. Some of those are real. Some are ridiculous. That's fine. Get them all out first, then judge them. ## Step 2: Make a 2x2 Now take every nightmare and drop it into a simple grid — likelihood on one axis, impact on the other. Here's how my list sorted: - **Host hates me** — high likelihood, low impact. I control my own presentation, so even if it's true, who cares. Roll with it. - **My OnlyFans leaks** — essentially zero likelihood, zero impact, on account of not having one. Note it, move on. - **I lose track of time and don't finish prepping** — high likelihood (I'm genuinely bad with time) and high impact. That's a real risk. Attack it. - **Allergy attack** — likely in pollen season, high impact if I can't see or speak. Attack it. - **Webcam dies** — likely, high impact. Attack it. - **Computer or internet dies** — high impact, but honestly not that likely. Contingency. ## Step 3: Act On The High-Impact Column The left side of the grid — low impact — you mostly let go. Mitigate the high-likelihood ones a little, monitor the rest, and don't lose sleep, because if they happen it's not a big deal. The right side is where the work is. Anything with high impact gets a proactive step before you begin: - Allergy risk? I took a Zyrtec that morning. Defeated. - Webcam might die? I had my phone set up as a backup camera, ready to go. Contingency in place. - Internet might drop? I can't fully control that, but I mitigated what I could — equipment checked, bill paid. Every item on the high-impact side turned into a specific action I took *before* I started. That's the entire output of a catastrophic brainstorm: a short list of threats and the concrete moves that neutralize them. The plan gets better. The outcome gets better. And you never get shoved into reactive mode in front of your team. **Tim's Take:** You can’t do this once you've started the thing. The whole value is in front-loading it. By the time the thing is live and the webcam dies, the catastrophic brainstorm is useless — you're just improvising, which is the exact failure state you were trying to avoid. If it could wreck your month and there's even a chance of it happening, plan for it now. ## Get Moving - Disaster Avoidance Awaits! Next time you've got a big, risky project on deck, block 30 minutes with your team before kickoff. Brain-dump the nightmares, sort them into the 2x2, and turn every high-impact box into a pre-emptive action. It's the difference between leading the project and reacting to it. And if you want to find the big risks hiding across your whole agency — not just the next project — the [WTF Agency Assessment](https://timkilroy.com/wtf-assessment) is a fast way to surface them. --- Canonical URL: https://timkilroy.com/blog/catastrophic-brainstorm-premortem